When the outcome tail wags the decision dog

One of the more common pitfalls in decision-making is linking the outcome quality to the decision quality. Annie Duke, former poker professional and decision strategist, calls it 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨. Otherwise known as outcome bias.

💡Duke calls resulting a case of the outcome tail wagging the decision dog: a good outcome is taken to be the result of a good decision; a bad outcome, the result of a poor decision.

Believing so is a problem because it is not true. Luck can get you a good outcome from a bad decision, and a bad outcome from a good decision.

A good way to snap out of a resulting mindset is to plot your decisions and outcomes over time in a 2X2 matrix.

👉If you consistently show up in the Good-Good or Bad-Bad, you may be blind to luck, which is one of two things that shape how things turn out for you. The other is the quality of your decisions.

👉If you’ve a bunch in the Bad Outcome-Good Decision quadrant, you may consider yourself unlucky and hope that the law of averages will turn the tide.

👉If you’re a frequent visitor to the Good Outcome-Bad Decision quadrant, you may want to prepare for when you run out of luck. Take a hard look at your decision-making process.

Without even knowing about this 2X2 matrix, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐬𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧-𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬.

Let me explain.

Picture Bad Outcome as a sad room. You’re in that room. No matter how you got in, you want to get out of there. So you search around for the door of bad luck. If you find it, you can escape from this wretched place!

Now think of Good Outcome as a happy room. No matter how you got in, you want to stay in. You don’t want to find out that you got in because of dumb luck. That’ll kill the vibe. So you stop looking for a door. You enjoy the vibe.

This is what happens in organizations. A campaign went well last year–repeat it! A product launch worked well–rinse and repeat. The last investment paid off–make another like that.

That’s why even when the music’s thumping and you’re having a blast, you must have the discipline to ask yourself: What got me here?