Second-order thinking for individual decision-making
Second-order thinking makes us imagine the unseen problems and opportunities created by every action we take.
A three-step process for making second-order thinking a part of your decision-making toolkit ๐
1๏ธโฃ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ค ๐๐๐ฒ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ข๐ซ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐ฏ๐๐ข๐ฅ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐ง๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ก๐จ๐ฐ ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ ๐ข๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ฌ
The first answer from within comes from your reflexive system. It is where your biases rule. So if your โheartโ tells you tomorrow looks positive, ask about the day after. Because what is easy tomorrow tends to snag the day after. Think about it: if somethingโs easy at first and easy through and through, shouldnโt everyone be a part of this get-rich scheme already? What are you missing?
2๏ธโฃ ๐ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ก ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง, ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐ง ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ฌ ๐ ๐จ ๐ฐ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐ ๐จ ๐ฉ๐จ๐จ๐ซ๐ฅ๐ฒ.
Say you want to build your skills and earn more, in that order. Youโre debating between staying in your job and finding a better position elsewhere. Instead of doing pros and cons for each option, map the results of each option faring well and poorly. For example, the current job going well could mean you learn new skills, work on interesting projects, and get a hike and promotion in the next appraisal. Same thing going poorly: business priorities change, you play a support role, skill-building is harder.
3๏ธโฃ ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ, ๐ฐ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐ง๐๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ข๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง.
In the continue-versus-leave question, your list should expose what you need to find to make the decision. What does your current skill set leave you out of? Whatโs the quality of intra-team talent for the things you cannot do? Is there role fungibility or exclusivity in your team? Is the way your team is structured the norm or the exception in your industry? Whatโs the market demand for your skillset and background?
For any consequential-irreversible decision, asking the right questions is a great first step toward reducing uncertainty. But there are no standard questions. They depend on the specifics of your situation. Apply second-order thinking to understand not just the potential opportunities but also the problems that may emerge from your decision.
