Certainty Effect — a lesson from Better Call Saul on how we deal with hope and fear

A friend hands you a lottery ticket. The draw is for the next day. Without a ticket, winning the lottery was an impossible outcome; now the hope is real, however small the chances.

Or imagine you’re certain to win a million dollars, except a 1% chance you may not. The verdict is tomorrow. The anxiety is killing you. Your lawyer suggests a settlement that guarantees you 90% of the maximum settlement. You aren’t willing to risk getting nothing at all, even if it’s a tiny one. You settle.

What does this mean?

We get disproportionately swayed when an outcome changes from a state of impossibility to possibility (𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵) and from a state of possibility to certainty (𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘺 𝘦𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵).

💡We feel much more optimistic about long shots and we feel much less optimistic about almost-certain outcomes than simple math suggests.

Landing of the first man on moon in 1969 brought about a souped-up wave of optimism around space travel and colonization. A vaccine with a 95% efficacy is good but wouldn’t you be willing to pay 10X for one with 100% efficacy?

In the show 𝘉𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘊𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘚𝘢𝘶𝘭, the FBI and DEA want to put Saul away for good for a list of drug-related crimes that’s longer than your monthly grocery list. Saul has no alibi other than a cooked-up story.

It is logical that the prosecution pushes for the maximum sentence. It is also logical that they laugh at the idea of settling by plea bargain with Saul.

Yet when we’ve something we think we deserve to win (a trial or a medical procedure), we’re willing to pay a big premium to eliminate a small risk. The prosecution wants absolute certainty that the case against Saul doesn’t fall through and he gets off scot-free.

And when we have little to lose (a flaky lawsuit or a lottery ticket), we’re willing to gamble for a large gain. Saul’s staring down the barrel, so he’s willing to take his chances in a trial where he has to sow just enough doubt in the mind of one juror among twelve.

The world we keep searching for is logical. The world that keeps showing up is predictably irrational. Hope and fear carry a transformative power.

When an outcome changes from impossible to possible, or from merely possible to certain, something changes within us too. We start thinking too much or too little of what we have.

In the end, Saul gets the prosecution to settle by plea bargain. Seven years! Seven certain years in prison instead of a possible maximum of a life sentence plus 190 years.

That’s the difference between possibility and certainty.