A Simple Marker to Time a Big Decision Right

By now you would know that the 2X2 decision matrix is really a prioritization tool. Its point is to help you strip down what’s on your mind to the most essential.

Imagine you do that. You make the smaller decisions as soon as possible and are willing to wait until as late as possible for the consequential-irreversible decision. You may be wondering: How do I now know when it’s time to act on the information I have and not wait any more? How can I avoid being too late?

I’ve learned a simple shortcut from Farnam Street that helps me time a big decision. It’s called STOP, FLOP, or KNOW.

It’s time to decide:

👉When you 𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐏 gathering useful information
👉When you 𝐅irst 𝐋ose an 𝐎𝐏portunity
👉When you have gathered a piece of evidence that you just 𝐊𝐍𝐎𝐖 makes the choice clear

𝐒𝐓𝐎𝐏
If you’ve held onto a job or a relationship for too long, you would know that there’s a point beyond which new information yields diminishing returns. Research shows that beyond a point you tend to cherry-pick information that supports what you want to happen (𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐛𝐢𝐚𝐬). You feel twice as confident but are not any more accurate with the additional information. That’s risky if you think of your big decision as a consequential-irreversible bet.

𝐅𝐋𝐎𝐏
You wait on a big decision because competing options could be equally compelling and you want to look for evidence that sets them apart. But when you lose an opportunity while holding out, consider that you have activated the tripwire for action. Waiting further is counterproductive. You are losing birds in the bush and you’ve nothing in hand.

𝐊𝐍𝐎𝐖
Sometimes a critical piece of information that you’ve gathered confirms your decision. It is the clincher. It leads to an ‘Aha’ moment. It clarifies all doubts.

While waiting to make an irreversible-consequential decision, you’re trying to reduce uncertainty. You could find that process agonizing and jump too early, or you could be obsessed with finding certainty and never jump. Knowing the markers in advance primes you to look out for them and be ready to jump when the moment arrives. This is a welcome relief from the endless back-and-forth that you may be forced into without these markers.